Tuesday, February 4, 2020

Identifying Opportunities in Economic and Regulatory Trends


Opportunity #1 (Regulation): National Primary Drinking Water Regulations: Lead and Copper Rule Revisions


Why this information leads me to believe an opportunity exists: The EPA is proposing revisions to water quality standards, particularly with lead and copper, in order to require water systems to “take a progressive set of actions to reduce lead levels at the tap.” This also extends to drinking water and schools / child care facilities. This poses a serious opportunity due to the fact that many such buildings/institutions/infrastructures use copper and or lead piping in their systems. This puts them at risk for increased lead/copper exposure and leakage into the water, potentially requiring them to refit or reevaluate their systems. This provides quite an opportunity for anyone, especially those who happen to be in the water purification / infrastructure / piping industry.

Who is the prototypical customer?: The prototypical customer is an organization / institution / company that possesses or has old, copper/lead water piping / water systems. This could include old schools, health care facilities, businesses, restaurants, public facilities, gyms, or anything of this nature that provides water to its patrons. Such customers may need to refit or fix their systems- making them a potential customer.

Relative Difficulty of the Opportunity: This opportunity is relatively difficult to pursue unless one is already involved in one of the aforementioned industries. Barrier costs to entry in such a service industry is typically high. However, one might be able to employ some creative thinking to perhaps do work on the side for another company or do consulting in the area.

Why I saw the opportunity: I have very fond memories of being a kid and the water in my schools always having that funky copper taste to it. This was extremely common growing up in Chicago, where many facilities are old and outdated with copper/lead piping. Having this firsthand personal experience allowed me to recognize just how widespread and large scale of an effect the passing of these revisions could have.


Opportunity #2 (Regulation): Traveling by Air with Service Animals Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM)


Why this information leads me to believe an opportunity exists: The United States DOT (Department of Transportation) is proposing amendments to the Department’s Air Carrier Access Act (ACAA) that regulates the transportation of service animals by airplane. The proposed amendments are seeking to set a definition for a service animal, to allow airlines the ability to recognize emotional support animals as pets instead of service animals, and for all passengers traveling with a service animal to complete and submit a DOT developed form about the good nature of the service animal to the airline. It also seeks to clarify current rules and specify situations surrounding damages. This leads me to believe that an opportunity may be on our hands due to the fact that new standards for service animal verification and air travel may be in the works. Although this is a fairly niche market, there are still a great deal of people nationwide who require a service animal in order to travel. New opportunities may exist in the training of service animals, certification of service animals, and breeding of service animals that are fit and pre-certified for air travel.

Who is the prototypical customer?: The prototypical customer is an individual requiring a service animal (for any of the lawful reasons with which one may attain one) who desires to travel by air.

Relative Difficulty of the Opportunity: This opportunity may be fairly difficult to pursue unless one already has affiliation with the service dog / air travel industry. However, if one had contacts in one of these domains (and the amendments are passed), one could potentially seize this opportunity and make revenue in the area by the aforementioned methods of training, certification, breeding, etc.

Why I saw the opportunity: I typically take about 10 flights a year, and my father may take anywhere upwards of 35. Through our combined experience, we have seen a lot of the atmosphere at airports and how disputes can occur between passengers, airlines, and airport attendees over service animals or emotional support animals. Thus, I see that there is still an unmet need in defining rules and regulations to prevent such altercations and disruptions, especially with something as critical as air travel. Thus, this led me to see this opportunity due to my unique perspective and experience.



Opportunity #3 (Economic Trend): Effect of Coronavirus on Chinese and World Economy



Why this information leads me to believe an opportunity exists: Last year (2019), China posted its lowest economic growth in 29 years with a 6.1% GDP growth. In addition, many industries and sectors saw steep declines, indicating that China’s economic growth is slowing.  This is also evident in their decrease in consumer spending. China, already in a weakened state, was hit hard by the coronavirus (and still is being as it develops). Wuhan, the center of the outbreak, is nearby to many businesses, schools, and transportation centers. This could cause the Chinese economy to crumble and slow, especially if the virus continues to spread and deadlock more and more of China. Not only would this have a profound effect upon the Chinese economy, but also upon American industry and consumers. America is a large importer of many Chinese goods, and such supply lines could be weakened by the outbreak. This could potentially provide American industries with an opportunity to seize more market share, or it could cause American consumers to be left unsatisfied. In addition, it provides investors, financial firms, hedge funds, and customers with an interesting opportunity pending the continued effect of the virus. Many American industries have already taken a hit to their shares, and this could continue.

Who is the prototypical customer?:

 Two Options:

Consumers: The prototypical customer would be a consumer who frequently buys goods imported from China that may now be at a shortage for some time. American industries that produce competing goods could potentially seize market share in such a domain- This applies to any industry sector from electronics and home goods to clothing and food.

Investors: The prototypical customer would be an investor with a surplus of capital and a desire to catch a potential market dip/crash on the rise back up. Hedge Funds/ investment firms/ third parties could utilize this in order to attract new customers or to showcase their expertise and the gains they were able to make for their customers if the market were to dip or crash (and then rise/normalize).

Relative Difficulty of the Opportunity: Regarding appealing to consumers as the customer, this opportunity would be very hard to seize. One would need to have control of some American manufacturing or business that competed with Chinese competitors- something that would be hard to start up on such short notice. Regarding appealing to investors, this opportunity would be much more feasible to seize. One would need a prior track record in order to get clients, but if one wanted to invest and take advantage of the trend on his or her own by waiting and watching the market and external conditions, he or she could very well do it.

Why I saw the opportunity: I’ve always been very aware of societal trends and how they have an impact on the stock market and the economy. That was one of the first things that my dad, a successful investor, taught me at a young age. In addition, there always tends to be recurring trends of events and reactions that are reflected in the market and economy. For example, the market crash of 2008 due to the preceding housing market disaster is a fine example of something like this. On a global or nationwide scale, effects are never contained. They always spread into other areas.



Opportunity #4: Impact the Labor-market with AI and Automation.

Why this information leads me to believe an opportunity exists: More than ever, the United States is becoming a technologically driven powerhouse, especially during a time when minimum wage continues to rise and the costs of implementing automation become more and more appealing. In order to continue the rapid growth of the last 10 or so years, the US will need to continue to adapt and revolutionize to keep up with other countries. AI and Automation are at the forefront of this, as their implementation allows for higher production rates and more innovation. In this process, unskilled workers or workers with outdated skills will need to retrain in order to be able to find jobs in this ever-changing market. This provides an opportunity both for those at the forefront of the change as well as for those with the ability to retrain and provide skills to the workers of yesterday.

Who is the prototypical customer?:

 Two cases:

If we are considering the opportunity as a consultant or engineer, than the prototypical customer is going to be businesses that still use labor and could potentially benefit from continually increasing to an automated, artificially intelligent workplace (warehousing, logistics, etc.).

If we are considering the opportunity as a teacher or trainer, than the prototypical customer would be someone who is at risk for being put out of work by automation (warehouse floor staff, typical desk workers or business employees, cashiers, line cooks, etc.). Teachers could market teaching tech skills to such target audiences.

Relative Difficulty of the Opportunity: Regardless of the target customer, this opportunity has a very high barrier to entry unless one has technological knowledge already in the subject areas. However, if one is a computer scientist, engineer, or something of the sort, the opportunity is very fresh and at hand. One could very well put their skills to use.

Why I saw the opportunity: I have the very unique opportunity to not only be a computer scientist that has conducted hands on research, but I also am the son of an executive of a Fortune 500 tech company that does a great deal of automation and logistics all around the globe. Through this lens, I’ve been able to perceive a lot of the higher level societal and industrial shifts that have occurred in the past 5-10 years. I have a very close relationship with my dad, so he’s always done a good job of teaching me about the industry and where it is going. Through this, I’ve been able to spot opportunities in tech such as this one that are very feasible and able to be seized right now.

1 comment:

  1. Hi John!
    Great work as usual. I thought that your analysis was very in-depth and accurately assessed the opportunities available with each emerging regulatory or economic factor. I thought your understanding of the difficulty of pursuing a given venture by analysis of its barriers to entry was particularly profound, and utilized information offered in other classes (Microeconomics, I assume). All in all, a great post that meets the standards of excellence I've come to expect of your work.

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